Russia’s GDP Expected to Contract by 4.8%

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects GDP contraction at the level of 4.8% in 2020, Minister Maksim Reshetnikov told reporters on Wednesday, adding that GDP contraction estimations for the second quarter are within the range of May’s outlook, TASS reported.

“In budget forecasting, we generally stick to the estimations provided in May, which envision GDP contraction of 9.5% in the second quarter. Currently the latest figures provided by Rosstat say minus 9.6%, which means that we are in the projected corridor and, consequently, expect total GDP contraction in comparable prices of 4.8% this year,” he said.

1H GDP contraction is expected to total 4.2% in Russia, the minister noted.

“The nationwide [economic recovery] plan suggests that [Russian GDP] will reach the pre-crisis quarterly level by the fourth quarter of 2021,” he said.

The ministry plans to adjust its outlook on the country’s social and economic development for 2020-2022 in August, Reshetnikov said, adding that the ministry might revise the GDP deflation index as GDP in nominal terms might be higher this year than projected in May.

Previously the Economic Development Ministry projected GDP contraction at 5% for 2020, with the estimation not considering the effect of implementation of the national economic recovery plan.

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