Sales of new cars in Russia could fall by 30% to 1.14 million units in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices, according to a study by consulting company PwC.
The forecast was based on a “stressful” scenario, according to which the restoration and stabilization of oil prices are expected by the Q3 of 2020, and the removal of most of the restrictions on the movement and activities of enterprises – in late spring or early summer. At the same time, online car sales will actively develop in Russia.
Excluding stress factors, the Russian car market will fall by 3.5% to 1.57 mln cars. However, the absence of their influence is unlikely, PwC emphasized.
According to the previously announced forecast of Boston Consulting Group, sales of new cars and LCVs (light commercial vehicles) in Russia in 2020 in a pessimistic scenario may fall to 50% due to the coronavirus pandemic, with an optimistic one – by 20%.
Contrary to what’s been going on in global markets, passenger car sales in Russia in March were actually up 23% compared to the same period last year.
According to analytical agency Autostat, this happened because consumers wanted to purchase new vehicles ahead of anticipated price spikes, following the ruble’s sharp decline. However, this trend is expected to be short-lived.
As dealerships are closed across the country as a precaution against the spread of the coronavirus, consumers are forced to only make online purchases, which means that sales will likely take a dive this month, according to Autonews Europe.