The 2022 annual report of Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) says that Moscow’s war against Ukraine will continue throughout 2023 and that both Russia and Ukraine will use any opportunity they get to conduct an offensive.
As the report says, the Russian regime has turned the capture of Donbas into a minimum tactical goal whereas it is still considering the possibility of renewing the attack on Kyiv, while at the same time, Russia’s strategic objectives have not changed, so it believed that, after a period of rest during the winter, Moscow likely plans to resume a new offensive.
Since Russia is not ready to leave the territory of Ukraine and Kyiv is not ready for territorial losses, the report underscores that the resumption of peace talks is currently not possible and that any signal sent by Moscow about the readiness to resume negotiations can be regarded as a bluff while it is regrouping its army and prepare for new offensives.
According to SAB’s analysis, Ukraine needs significantly more Western military support in order to win this war so Kyiv will have to address the international community in 2023 to prevent the onset of war fatigue.
The report notes that one of the most important factors affecting the outcome of the war will be the ability of both sides to obtain or produce the armaments and munitions – both Russia and Ukraine lack them – as soon as possible.
SAB analysts believe that Moscow will continue its efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine, divide the West, and continue to spread nuclear threats although their current assessment points to a low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons, which would alienate Moscow’s allies China and India and could lead to more direct Western involvement in the war.
Ukraine’s army, according to the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, could start to liberate Ukraine’s Crimea – which is occupied by Russia -by the end of spring.
Serhiy Nayev, the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the other hand, believes that Ukraine will win the war and will restore to its 1991 borders.
